{
 "model": "poisson-persistence-v1",
 "forecasts": [
  {
   "id": "f-2026-10-05-ai-agents",
   "made": "2026-10-05",
   "resolves": "2026-10-12",
   "kind": "term-persistence",
   "term": "ai agents",
   "question": "Will \"ai agents\" appear in at least 7 stories during the next 7 days?",
   "threshold": 7,
   "p": 0.66,
   "model": "poisson-persistence-v1",
   "basis": "most-discussed",
   "inputs": {
    "recent_7d": 9,
    "base_per_week": 0.7,
    "lambda": 7.8
   },
   "outcome": 1,
   "observed": 16,
   "brier": 0.116,
   "log_score": 0.416
  },
  {
   "id": "f-2026-10-05-wall-street",
   "made": "2026-10-05",
   "resolves": "2026-10-12",
   "kind": "term-persistence",
   "term": "wall street",
   "question": "Will \"wall street\" appear in at least 5 stories during the next 7 days?",
   "threshold": 5,
   "p": 0.59,
   "model": "poisson-persistence-v1",
   "basis": "most-discussed",
   "inputs": {
    "recent_7d": 6,
    "base_per_week": 0.7,
    "lambda": 5.2
   },
   "outcome": 1,
   "observed": 22,
   "brier": 0.168,
   "log_score": 0.528
  },
  {
   "id": "f-2026-10-05-data-centers",
   "made": "2026-10-05",
   "resolves": "2026-10-12",
   "kind": "term-persistence",
   "term": "data centers",
   "question": "Will \"data centers\" appear in at least 4 stories during the next 7 days?",
   "threshold": 4,
   "p": 0.61,
   "model": "poisson-persistence-v1",
   "basis": "most-discussed",
   "inputs": {
    "recent_7d": 5,
    "base_per_week": 0,
    "lambda": 4.3
   },
   "outcome": 1,
   "observed": 14,
   "brier": 0.152,
   "log_score": 0.494
  },
  {
   "id": "f-2026-10-12-market",
   "made": "2026-10-12",
   "resolves": "2026-10-19",
   "kind": "term-persistence",
   "term": "market",
   "question": "Will \"market\" appear in at least 35 stories during the next 7 days?",
   "threshold": 35,
   "p": 0.8,
   "model": "poisson-persistence-v1",
   "basis": "emerging",
   "inputs": {
    "recent_7d": 47,
    "base_per_week": 0,
    "lambda": 39.9
   },
   "outcome": null,
   "observed": null,
   "brier": null,
   "log_score": null
  },
  {
   "id": "f-2026-10-12-stock",
   "made": "2026-10-12",
   "resolves": "2026-10-19",
   "kind": "term-persistence",
   "term": "stock",
   "question": "Will \"stock\" appear in at least 29 stories during the next 7 days?",
   "threshold": 29,
   "p": 0.74,
   "model": "poisson-persistence-v1",
   "basis": "emerging",
   "inputs": {
    "recent_7d": 38,
    "base_per_week": 0,
    "lambda": 32.3
   },
   "outcome": null,
   "observed": null,
   "brier": null,
   "log_score": null
  },
  {
   "id": "f-2026-10-12-beyond",
   "made": "2026-10-12",
   "resolves": "2026-10-19",
   "kind": "term-persistence",
   "term": "beyond",
   "question": "Will \"beyond\" appear in at least 15 stories during the next 7 days?",
   "threshold": 15,
   "p": 0.72,
   "model": "poisson-persistence-v1",
   "basis": "emerging",
   "inputs": {
    "recent_7d": 20,
    "base_per_week": 0,
    "lambda": 17
   },
   "outcome": null,
   "observed": null,
   "brier": null,
   "log_score": null
  },
  {
   "id": "f-2026-10-12-less",
   "made": "2026-10-12",
   "resolves": "2026-10-19",
   "kind": "term-persistence",
   "term": "less",
   "question": "Will \"less\" appear in at least 15 stories during the next 7 days?",
   "threshold": 15,
   "p": 0.72,
   "model": "poisson-persistence-v1",
   "basis": "emerging",
   "inputs": {
    "recent_7d": 20,
    "base_per_week": 0,
    "lambda": 17
   },
   "outcome": null,
   "observed": null,
   "brier": null,
   "log_score": null
  },
  {
   "id": "f-2026-10-12-firm",
   "made": "2026-10-12",
   "resolves": "2026-10-19",
   "kind": "term-persistence",
   "term": "firm",
   "question": "Will \"firm\" appear in at least 15 stories during the next 7 days?",
   "threshold": 15,
   "p": 0.72,
   "model": "poisson-persistence-v1",
   "basis": "emerging",
   "inputs": {
    "recent_7d": 20,
    "base_per_week": 0,
    "lambda": 17
   },
   "outcome": null,
   "observed": null,
   "brier": null,
   "log_score": null
  },
  {
   "id": "f-2026-10-12-service",
   "made": "2026-10-12",
   "resolves": "2026-10-19",
   "kind": "term-persistence",
   "term": "service",
   "question": "Will \"service\" appear in at least 15 stories during the next 7 days?",
   "threshold": 15,
   "p": 0.72,
   "model": "poisson-persistence-v1",
   "basis": "emerging",
   "inputs": {
    "recent_7d": 20,
    "base_per_week": 0,
    "lambda": 17
   },
   "outcome": null,
   "observed": null,
   "brier": null,
   "log_score": null
  }
 ],
 "summary": {
  "model": "poisson-persistence-v1",
  "open": 6,
  "resolved": 3,
  "voided": 0,
  "mean_brier": 0.145,
  "benchmark_brier": 0.25,
  "skill": 0.42,
  "mean_log_score": 0.479,
  "calibration": [
   {
    "range": "0-34%",
    "n": 0,
    "mean_p": null,
    "observed": null
   },
   {
    "range": "34-67%",
    "n": 3,
    "mean_p": 0.62,
    "observed": 1
   },
   {
    "range": "67-100%",
    "n": 0,
    "mean_p": null,
    "observed": null
   }
  ]
 },
 "note": "Forecasts are made at most once a week from the emerging-ideas list and scored with the Brier score against a 50% benchmark (0.25). The git history of this file is the audit trail."
}